Week 1 in the NFL is always the hardest week from a pro handicappers perspective, as we have so little to go on before the games really count. Pre-season is a very tricky time where, with the exception of Game 3, most of the action is focused on second and third row players who will have little to no impact on the next team. So despite being able to study the lines for an extra day (lines went out Sunday morning instead of a typical Tuesday morning with no ‘OFF’ games), it can still be a tall order for us handicappers to give feedback. winner to our readers. However, we were happy with our 8-6-2 ATS because that is arguably the hardest week to analyze and it gets easier from then on. So we’re in another harvesting season with 60 percent efficiency. However, let’s take a look back at Week 1 to see what he hit and missed with.
Colts (-6) vs. Saints – Our Pick – Colts (W) – Most of the competitors went the other way on this one as the Saints were the girls’ pick for week 1. We looked at it differently because we felt the Colts played very good to the poor secondary Saints. and that the D Colts got a lot better with S Bob Sanders in the lineup, which they showed in Game 1. Good win for us here.
Jaguars(-6.5) vs. Titans: Our Pick: Titans (W) – Another game where the majority went the other way. We love Vince Young and his ability to keep his team in games. 6.5 was too much for the offensively challenged Jags, especially with a new starter in David Garrard. We also believed the Titans would be able to run the ball and they finished with over 200 rushing yards in a stunning victory.
Vikings (-3) vs. Falcons: Our pick: Vikings (W) This one seemed easy to us, as any team on the road with Joey Harrington at QB is a great team to bet against. The Vikings ran at will against a soft D Falcons and the demoralizing preseason was enough to sabotage Atlanta’s Game 1.
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Jets – Our Pick: Jets(L) – I was disappointed with this pick as we relied on recent history between these two teams, where the last seven regular season games between the two were decided by 7 or fewer points. The fact that the Patriots apparently cheated by videotaping the Jets’ signs no doubt had something to do with the lopsided win, but the Pats were clearly the better team here.
Rams (-1) vs. Panthers – Our pick: Rams (L) – I really liked the Rams here, who we feel improved a lot going into the season. Carolina, however, played D very well and ran the ball well, which would have allowed them to beat anyone the way they played here. I still like the Rams’ offense, but the D is an important issue to keep in mind.
Broncos (-3) vs. Bills – Our Pick: Bills (W) – We were definitely out of the popular opinion here, as many thought Denver would crush the Bills. However, we love the home underdog angle and thought the Bills’ improved offense would be enough to keep them in the game. They would have won outright if they hadn’t given up a last second FG.
Raiders (-1) vs. Lions: Our pick: Raiders (W): Many cappers brought the Raiders here thinking new coach Lane Kiffin would lead them to a home win. With a very tough defense, the Raiders combined well here, but got off to a terrible start from which they couldn’t recover. They made a run in the second half, but the turnovers reminded many of their pathetic performance last year.
Seahawks (-6) vs. Buccaneers: Our Pick: Seahawks (W): This one was an easy one as the Seahawks matched up favorably in all facets of the game against the Bucs. It took half of them to get going, but Seattle did their job in the second half of the game to end this contest.
Redskins (-3) vs. Dolphins – Our Pick: Redskins (tie) – These games kill us because we pick the winning side, but it ends in a tie. Washington also won it with a miraculous catch late in the second half, but the tie went into the books, depriving us of a win.
49ers(-3) vs. Cardinals: Our pick: 49ers (tie): See above.
Chargers (-6.5) vs. Bears: Our Pick: Bears (L): We’re following the trends here, as the Bears went 20-2 ATS in their last 22 games against the AFC West. Chicago was under the number until the fourth quarter when the D got tired. Very frustrating loss in this contest.
Eagles (-3) vs. Packers: Our Pick: Eagles (L): Another frustrating loss as the Pack offense did nothing all day, but got its points due to two missed punts by Eagles punt returners. If it wasn’t for the turnovers, this would be a win.
Steelers (-4.5) vs. Browns: Our pick: Steelers (W): Our best bet of the week, the Steelers absolutely destroyed the Browns here. This was undoubted as the disparity between the two is the size of the grand cannon. Unbelievably, we saw other posts picking the Browns. wow!
Bengals (-2.5) vs. Ravens: Our Pick: Bengals (W): The Bengals tried to give this one away, but Baltimore’s run of turnovers was too much for them in this game.
Texans(-3) vs. Chiefs – Our Pick: Texans (W) – We liked this matchup for the Texans as they were playing at home and matched up well against a weak Chiefs D. KC looks like one of the worst teams in the league and it was a good game to take advantage of a short line before the Chiefs showed everyone how bad they are.
Cowboys (-5.5) vs. Giants – Our Pick: Giants (L) – Was ready to score the win here after the Giants had a late TD to get within 3. The Cowboys then had an even later TD to go up 10 and end the game. Terrible D of Giants that undermined the great offense. It was with the Giants’ 5-1 ATS record in the last six against Dallas.
So now we go to Week 2.