The public falls in love with some games and the old saying “If it seems too good to be true” still holds strong. Sure the books still command a lot when the public overwhelmingly loves one side of an NFL game. But let’s look at the NFL’s Sunday schedule as an example. Let’s say we look at the 10 most popular games and have the audience pick the winners for each of those 10 games. Viewership will most likely hit an average of 4-6 out of those 10 games. Simple math will tell you that fading the public as your only method of disadvantage may turn out to be an unwise decision. When you take into consideration in the NFL that the public often bets on the best team, you have to wonder if just fading the public can even win.

Sure, we recommend using “public” as part of your disable, but be sure to use other tools. The best handicapper will never be stubborn or ever think they are smarter than the gamblers. Never dismiss important handicap methods. Take it all into consideration. Here are some important factors that a handicapper needs to consider in the NFL.

1. Quarterbacks – Sure you need more than a quarterback, but that’s often a very simple question to ask yourself.

2. Running Game – Often if you don’t get a chance to run the ball, you’re in for a long day on the field. Plus, with a favorite who can run the ball, you’ll have a better chance of covering that favorite margin.

3. Lines of Attack and Defense – The average Joe will not pay attention to this part of the handicap and it is very simple. Sometimes you have a mismatch in the trenches that will say a lot.

4. Home and Away – Look closely. Some teams cannot play at a high level away from home and others don’t care if they are at home or away. With some teams not being that great, they usually have the ability to turn it on in front of the home fans.

5. Trends – There’s a debate about whether it’s better to fade or follow trends, but sometimes it’s nice to know if a team has beaten a team 12 times in a row. After a while it gets into the heads of the players.

6. Field Goal Kickers: If you can’t kick a 40-yard field goal, that changes everything. Make sure you know who your kicker is.

7. Revenge: Some people say revenge doesn’t matter, but these athletes are competitive and remember if they got their ass kicked the last time they played.

8. Line Movement – As much as we say, don’t use it as your only form of handicap. A good forecaster will figure it out. Pay attention and see if you can spot a trend.

9. On Deck – More so in college football, but a lot of times you’ll find a team that isn’t 100% focused on the game at hand with an even bigger game next week.

10. Pressure – Some teams handle pressure very well and some teams are the kings of chokers. You can usually get an idea of ​​what a team is like. If everything is on the line and a team has shown that it isn’t very good in critical situations, don’t expect that to change overnight.

Bottom Line: There is no right or wrong way to cripple a game, but always be ready to learn and take advice. Don’t let pride get in the way. Also stay away from teams in which you have a vested interest as a fan. It’s hard to stay objective, and even though you think you’re objective, you often aren’t.

Handicapping is not a sprint. Don’t try to get rich overnight. Realize that it is a marathon and set reasonable goals. Make sure you are prepared. Keep everything in mind and never think that you are better than the punter. If you can do this objectively, you may be setting yourself up for a winning season.